Ian & Stuart's Australian Mac: Not for Sale/Another.not.for.sale (Australia).iso/hold me in your arms/Dennis Hayes Speech

Text File | 1994-09-20 | 13KB | 225 lines

          Saturday, 17 September 1994 12:47:07 PM
          aus.org.efa Item
  From:           Ash Nallawall <[e-mail]>,internet
  Subject:        Dennis Hayes Speech (was Re: Guidelines for Information Providers)
  To:             aus.org.efa
In <35ag6v$[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Rhys Weatherley) writes:
>In <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Ash Nallawalla, VK3CIT) writes:

>>If there is interest, I can post Dennis Hayes' keynote speech

>Yes please.

DENNIS HAYES SPEECH
KEY NOTE ADDRESS
ONE BBSCON
8/18/94

I want to welcome everyone to Atlanta.  This is our hometown where we
started our business back in 1977 and I hope you enjoy the hospitality
the city has to offer you.

Every dynamic of your computer system is progressing.  The speed of the
processor is increasing.  The size of the memory is growing.  The
resolution of the screen is increasing.  The size of the hard drive is
growing.  For the typical PC user today, whether in a corporate
environment or an individual user, the rate of change of each of the
dimensions of the computing environment has been developing at a very
rapid, predictable manner.

For the past 15 years, the speed of modems has doubled every 18 months.
And, the difference is dramatic.  In 1981 we were sending data at 300
bit/s with the Hayes Smartmodem 300 and it was taking 9 hours to send a
1 megabyte file.  Today with our OPTIMA 288 that same megabyte of data
can be sent in less than a minute.

We've seen a tremendous increase in speed and performance in the last
few years but it wasn't enough.  Late in 1993, our customers were
telling us that the time had come for another leap forward with speed.
They wanted more than 14,400 bit/s.

The standard committee working on V.Fast was supposed to have finished
V.34 two years earlier.  They had just finished a round of sessions and
all indications were they wouldn't get finished for probably another
year.  In order to meet the demand of our customers, we decided to
deliver 28,800 bit/s with the V.FC technology.

Fortunately we chose to do it in such a way that the whole industry
would be equipped with a compatible transmission capability.  Through
the development efforts of Hayes working together with Rockwell, new
technology allowed modem manufacturers of modems to build 28,800 bit/s
devices that were almost instantly compatible because they worked on the
same basic technology.

At ONE BBSCON last year, we wanted a real test for this technology so we
worked with several of the larger boards and Fidonet hubs to put these
products into "live" service. We wanted to see if there were going to be
any compatibility problems with the existing installed base of products,
and after a couple of minor problems were discovered and fixed, we were
able to bring to market one of the fastest, most reliable products ever.
Reviewers agree with us.  OPTIMA 288 has recently won awards from the
editors of BYTE and PC Magazine.

But what's happening now?  V.FC is well established worldwide.  There
are now over a million modems in the installed base with V.FC.  While
the V.34 standard was being hammered out, over a million modems using
V.FC technology have been in use day in and day out.  Under the
accelerated procedures for establishing standards, member countries of
the ITU-T (International Telecommunications Union) are now voting on the
V.34 standard expected to be passed by September.

In that same timeframe, the V.34 standard will be well enough shaken out
from the laboratory work and the testing to be a viable standard.  In
the meantime, with V.34 being anticipated, V.FC has served us very well
and we are proud to have been able to be a part of that.  In no way has
the V.FC activity been intended to undermine the standards process, but
it was only done to supplement.

What does this mean for you as a board operator?  It means that when you
start to move up to 28,800 bit/s, remember that there is an installed
base of one million V.FC modems. You are going to need products that
support both V.34 and V.FC.

Being as forward thinking as each of you are, you are probably
thinking... what's the NEXT speed?  Can we double the speed again?  If
you want to understand how the top speed works, it is a lot like trying
to travel at the speed of light.  You remember from your physics courses
that if you get close to traveling at the speed of light, to get a small
increase in speed, it takes a tremendous amount of energy.  It is the
same way when you're trying to get a little bit more information through
a channel.  You approach Shannon's Law as information passes through
that channel.  In order to get a little bit more information through
there, it takes a tremendous amount of processing.  The limit of speed
of Shannon's law will not allow us to double the 288 speed like we did
with 144. It will allow us to squeeze the sponge and get the last drop.
You will probably see a V.34bis specification for approximately 33,000
bit/s.  That will be the highest speed for analog modems.

What else are we going to do with modems?  Voice functionality in modems
is about to get really hot.  While voice modems have been available for
several years, modems with voice functionality represent less than 5
percent of the market today.

What exactly do we mean by voice?  First, there is voice-data switching.
There's a group that has developed and is licensing the capability of
doing an automatic handshake between modems.  Hayes has announced our
support for this.  This is called Voice View. You and I could be talking
on the phone with each other and I could click on an icon on my machine,
send the command to the modem, and go from voice mode into data mode. I
can sit at the screen and read the screen.  What you'll hear is a beep
and quiet seconds then another beep, and all of a sudden the information
pops up on your screen.

Another type of voice is the voice record and playback -- similar to an
answering machine.  The third is simultaneous voice and data.
Simultaneous voice and data allows you to send high speed data and
communication with compressed voice or voice that is mixed into the
analog part of the DSP.  The two techniques are different in that when
you mix it into the DSP, the cost per modem is very low.  But the
ability to take it in and out of the computer is limited.

With the voice compression techniques, where the voice and data are
mixed together before they are put through the channel and are able to
feed it in and out of the computer system, a broader degree of
flexibility is gained.  I think if you find out now about what voice
might be capable of doing and if you talk to the software developers who
write the bulletin board tools, you'll have a big opportunity to get
ahead of the wave and be prepared to be part of making it happen as we
extend the capabilities of fax and add voice support.  Voice offers new
services such as the ability to store voice messages and the ability to
take electronic mail and do voice annotation.

Another area I'm getting very excited about is the possibility of
sending compressed video over 28,800bit/s modems and ISDN connections.
The compressed video opens up a big opportunity.  It's like taking your
.GIF viewers which give you a static picture and turning them into
practically real time video or stored video capabilities.

When we look at the "need for speed" as it's been referred to, and the
opportunity that speed presents to broaden the applications, we very
quickly arrive at the fact that the analog telephone line will go only
so fast and that we're rapidly approaching that limit.

In late `95 or early `96, ISDN is going to be needed by the PC community
as a communications vehicle.  This is the first time the PC industry or
the BBS industry has been limited by something that's outside their
control, and that's outside the technology.

The limit comes from the fact that public policy and the public
infrastructure are involved for ISDN to be available.  You still cannot
get ISDN in many places today.  Where you can get ISDN, the tariffs
often do not make sense.  And, when the tariffs make sense, the
installations are ridiculous.

This is a problem that affects not only bulletin board operators but the
entire computer industry and the entire social structure of the economy.
It affects not only the United States.  In order for information
utilization to continue to develop in a natural manner, we have to have
readily available the economic transport vehicles to help us bridge the
distances in making communications.  A majority of the people in Public
service Commissions who set the tariffs and many of the people who set
public policy don't understand.

A few states, such as Tennessee, have taken the lead.  Tennessee has
mandated that ISDN be made available throughout the state to everyone
who wants the service.  In doing so, the Public Service Commission has
set reasonably priced tariffs for residential use and business use and
has forced the cost of installation to be reduced so that it is
affordable. As a matter of fact, the first six months they offered it,
installation was free.  Tennessee is an example that we need to hold up
in front of every other state in the country and every other country in
the world and say "Why can't you do this?"

You've heard a lot today already about the importance of what happens in
the public sector affecting the industry.  I think one point that was
made that is very relevant is as long as nobody was making money on
bulletin boards, nobody cared.  No law suits. No legislation.  No
taxation.  Guess what?  As soon as we as an industry start making money,
these folks start crawling out from under the carpet everywhere.

When I formed the Georgia High Tech Alliance, I really didn't know much
about how state government worked.  In the last four years, I've learned
a lot about that.  A lot of it is people who come from various walks of
life to the state legislature because people in their community respect
them and somebody convinced them to run for office.  They want to try to
do things that are right for the people they represent.  The problem is
that they get so many different people talking about what the right
thing is. Unless there is a group to represent and people who have a
common interest in what you provide -- unless we have a voice with the
legislators -- they don't know when they are helping us or when they are
hurting us.  For example, they don't realize that if they pass a tax
that it would damage our ability to grow a fledgling part of the
industry.  They don't know that if they pass some other local laws what
impact they're going to have.  They need someone they can go to.

A lot of attention is placed on Washington.  Certainly a lot is going on
in Washington today with activities such as the NII.  Crime is one of
the hottest topics in the country today and computer crime is a part of
that.  Misuse of information systems has become a topic that gets
headlines. Television shows are full of stories on stalkers and
pornography, or adult material getting into the hands of children.  All
that stuff scares people who don't know about it.

On the other hand, there has been some publicity, but not nearly as much
as I think there could be, about the positive side of bulletin boards
and Sysops. Positive things like being able to use bulletin boards
during the floods in South Georgia or the earthquakes in California need
to be made more visible.  So, we need some way to have a public voice
for public policy, as well as a public voice for public relations.  I
think we're ready to get something organized.  It's up to you!

I think that Sysops need their own group.  There's one that is being
proposed that has initial funding to get it started -- the Association
of Online Professionals.  I've agreed that if we can raise enough money
to operate the organization for a year, I'll serve as the Chairman for
the first year.  If there's anyone here who wants to be involved, we'd
love to have your help because the issues are massive.  The tidal wave
is over our heads and about to break on us.

Politicians need to create issues that can get them votes.  There are
two ways for politicians to create issues and they can either be for
issues or against issues.  They appeal to issues that get people's
attention on an emotional level.  One way they do that is by saying
they're going to do things that help the state to raise money or help
the country to raise money.